PREPS ALCOVE

Bracketeering: Some observations as we try to predict playoff layout

JR Radcliffe
jr.radcliffe@jrn.com

The creation of the WIAA football postseason pairings can be a complicated process, but it's also one that functions more by math and geography than by subjective evaluation, so there are some things we can glean from an early attempt at predicting the brackets. Travis Wilson of Wissports.net put together his rough projection after Week 7 games, a process that includes the prediction of all remaining outcomes throughout the state to arrive at a field of 224 teams.

I have my own spreadsheet of the teams in Wisconsin and began trying to predict outcomes for every game to arrive at the field, a maneuver that winds up wading deep into tiebreakers. Since my guesstimation is as good as anyone else's -- particularly outside the Milwaukee area -- I decided to use Wilson's model for determining the field. He'd be using the same math I would, anyway, with the difference being a projected outcome here or there.

To try and briefly summarize, all teams with a winning record (conference only) are in, and in recent years, all teams with a .500 record are next in line and also make the field. According to Travis' predictions, four teams with losing records would also make the field, and he uses a series of tiebreakers to figure out which ones (all of which are itemized in the WIAA's official tourney rules).

Some observations from Travis' work (and my own subsequent attempts to put the top three divisions into pods of eight).

Milwaukee-area teams with losing records aren't likely to make the field. Wilson sees four teams with losing records making the field, and the advantage in that situation always goes to the teams with more conference games played, since the tiebreaker is winning percentage in conference. Most teams in our area play six or seven conference games, but teams in the north and Madison area that play nine would get dibs. With six teams projected to finish 4-5, that's going to make it tough for a Milwaukee-area team to crack that list.

Through Week 7 and using the WIAA criteria, Travis calculates that Brodhead/Juda, Gilman and Green Bay Preble get in on the first couple tiebreakers. He figures De Pere wins the tiebreaker between Beloit Turner and Janesville Parker, ultimately needing to use first-half points allowed. Those are calculated through Week 8, so while De Pere has a two point lead on Janesville Parker for the moment, that may not be the case by Week 9.

Of course, by Week 9, we may not be using this tiebreaker at all based on outcomes around the state.

Area D1 schools are surely going to mix with Madison schools. With a limited number of area teams in Division 1, it seems supremely likely that Arrowhead, Mukwonago and Oconomowoc will shift west to face off with a number of Madison-area schools from the Big Eight, as has become custom. In Travis' model, it would be a tidy fit to have those three paired with Sun Prairie, Middleton, Madison West, Verona and LaFollette, though those arrangements can sometimes get thrown off based on how many league champs there are. Verona appears headed to a Big Eight title, and Oconomowoc is looking for a Little Ten crown. Should OHS fall to Wisconsin Lutheran on Thursday, that would increase the likelihood of this arrangement panning out, though it's probably fairly certain regardless. Each of the other geographic pools of eight would have one or two undefeated conference champs.

Franklin would likely stay south, in a pool with teams such as Lake Geneva Badger, Marquette and Kenosha Indian Trail. Teams from the southern portion of the Fox Valley, such as Kimberly, Neenah and Fond du Lac, would likely pair with some northern Milwaukee schools, such as Milwaukee King and Messmer/Shorewood. Messmer/Shorewood, as it stands in Travis' model is the lowest-enrollment D1 school.

Oconomowoc vs. Arrowhead, the rematch? Based on what I see in the Madison/Waukesha County bracket, it seems a strong possibility that Oconomowoc could face Mukwonago in the first round, and a rematch with Arrowhead isn't out of the question. Arrowhead won in the final seconds at OHS last year in Level 3.

Division 2 is a tougher geographic picture. It seems likely in Division 2 that Brookfield Central, Brookfield East, Waukesha West and Waukesha North will be grouped together. The question is: where will the other four schools come from? The north and northwest foursome of Menomonie, Wausau West, Superior and Holmen doesn't fit neatly with either the Fox Valley or the Madison area, but since the latter has fewer teams to account for, I'm guessing the Madison-area squads get paired with the northern group, leaving seven Fox Valley/Green Bay schools paired together (and Hartford, the northernmost of those that remain in the Milwaukee area).

That would seem to put Watertown, Wilmot, Waterford and Wauwatosa West in with the Waukesha County schools, with Homestead, Greenfield and Whitefish Bay headlining the eastern Milwaukee pod of eight.

Division 3 powers aren't likely to escape each other. It seems almost certain that Pewaukee, Catholic Memorial, New Berlin Eisenhower and Wisconsin Lutheran will wind up in the same Division 3 sphere, with perhaps teams such as Delavan-Darien, Jefferson or Port Washington thrown in. But no matter how those outlier teams get sliced up, it seems unlikely the Milwaukee core will get divided. With Plymouth, Luxemburg-Casco and perhaps West De Pere all in contention to win league titles, that could necessitate a shift of Plymouth and Kewaskum down to the Milwaukee bunch, but if Pewaukee beats Greenfield in Week 9, the Milwaukee area would already have two conference titlists (along with Catholic Memorial).

Division 6 will be loaded for Lake Country Lutheran. There's no escaping it -- D6 is loaded. Through seven weeks, seven teams in the top 10 were undefeated and the rest had one loss, with plenty more strong teams not on that list. There are two possibilities for LCL: one is to stay in a "southeastern" pod that will include powerhouse St. Mary's Springs and another is to float into the "southwestern" pod that includes powerhouse Darlington and offensive monster Hunter Johnson. The problem with the latter is that the unit also includes undefeated Pecatonica-Argyle, and if you assume LCL will also be undefeated, that's an overloaded grouping full of undefeated conference champs. It might make more sense to stay in the southeast, where Ozaukee and Iola-Scandanavia are state ranked but both have a loss. Springs would be the only other unbeaten team.

Again, these guesses in groups of eight are my own, but the projection of which teams make the playoffs at all are Wilson's.

Division 1: Arrowhead, Madison LaFollette, Madison West, Middleton, Mukwonago, Oconomoowc, Sun Prairie, Verona

Division 1: Badger, Franklin, Kenosha Indian Trail, Marquette, Milwaukee Hamilton, Milwaukee Riverside, Milwaukee Washington, Racine Horlick

Division 2: Brookfield Central, Brookfield East, Waterford, Watertown, Waukesha West, Waukesha North, Wauwatosa West, Wilmot

Division 2: Bay View, Cedarburg, Greendale, Greenfield, Homestead, Milwaukee Reagan, South Milwaukee, Whitefish Bay

Division 3: Catholic Memorial, Delavan-Darien, Jefferson, New Berlin Eisenhower, Pewaukee, Port Washington, Whitnall, Wisconsin Lutheran

Division 6: Iola-Scandanavia, Lake Country Lutheran, Manawa, Markesan, Oshkosh Lourdes, Ozaukee, Racine Lutheran, St. Mary's Springs