Why it'll be Duke vs. Kansas for the NCAA title
Whether you want to refer to them the "traditional power six," the "power five plus the Big East" or "the Big East and the football five," it's obviously getting more and more advantageous for teams that belong to those conferences — the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, SEC and Pac-12.
Sure, annual West Coast Conference power Gonzaga defied the odds to claim a No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA Tournament by compiling a 32-1 record, but the Bulldogs are a small-conference outlier. Over the past five years, it's become tougher and tougher for teams outside of college basketball's power structure to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid.
In 2013, 11 of 37 at-large bids went to teams outside of the six power conferences. Of course, that was in the season before the latest major wave of realignment.
In 2014, the number of at-large spots dropped by one with the addition of the American Athletic Conference. That year, non-power six schools including the AAC, claimed 10 of 36 at-large bids. That number dropped to seven in 2015, six in 2016 and four this year as the six major conferences put 38 teams into the field with 32 coming as at-large additions, including all four teams in the First Four — the last teams to earn bracket spots.
Part of this shift has to do with conference realignment bleeding small conferences of their stronger programs. Some of it also has to do with teams that might have made the tournament anyway stealing a bid from their own conference by winning their conference tournaments.
There's also the issue that schools in smaller conferences have a harder time finding strong non-conference opponents who are willing to schedule them. Thus they have to play weaker schedules and are therefore judged differently. Just ask Illinois State head coach Dan Muller, who took to Twitter on Monday morning to ask teams from major conferences to consider a home-and-home against his Redbirds, which missed the NCAA Tournament despite a 27-6 record and RPI of 33.
What we're left with is a bracket with plenty of recognizable names and fewer Cinderella options compared to years past. Middle Tennessee State, which is playing in Milwaukee, will be a popular upset pick, but most first-round matchups are made up of power six schools where an upset might be a surprise, but not a David vs. Goliath struggle.
There will certainly be upsets and some smaller schools beating bigger ones — this is still March Madness after all — but the feel of it all might be a bit different this year. With a glut of big-conference schools come compelling story lines of a different nature, like the top three teams in the South Regional representing 24 championships, Nothwestern finally making the tournament and many more.
So with that, I'll share my bracket with you and try to make sense of the 68-team field. I've watched lots of games, ranked teams for The Associated Poll each week and examined enough metrics to make my head spin. I won't get everything right but that's OK. That's what March Madness is all about.
Join my pool in the USA TODAY Sports Bracket Challenge
EAST REGIONAL
If Villanova is going to repeat as the national champion, the Wildcats are going to have to take a tough road. A possible matchup against Wisconsin — a team that was ranked in the top 10 a few weeks ago — is difficult. Then a possible game against Duke — the preseason No. 1 team that just won the ACC tournament and had an argument for a No. 1 see — could be an incredible game in Madison Square Garden.
The bracket offers plenty of juicy matchups for the teams from Wisconsin.
Marquette is playing a virtual road game in South Carolina in the first round before a possible teacher-student matchup between Steve Wojciechowski's Golden Eagles and Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils. Before it can face Villanova, Wisconsin will have to get through former Marquette coach Buzz Williams' Virginia Tech squad.
The upset team in this region could be East Tennessee State, which went 27-7 on the way to winning the Southern Conference. The Buccaneers are one of the most turnover-prone teams in the tournament, but when they take care of the ball they're one of the best shooting teams in the country.
In the end, I see Duke knocking off Villanova because the Blue Devils have superior talent and it's incredibly hard for a team — even well-balanced, super experienced Villanova — to make Final Four runs in back-to-back years.
MIDWEST REGIONAL
In the past week alone, Michigan's basketball team survived a plane crash and rattled off four straight victories to win the Big Ten tournament, beating Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin on the way. The No. 7 Wolverines just have a team-of-destiny feel to them. At the very least, it's easy to find yourself rooting for them — well, maybe not if you're from Ohio.
If they are able to get a run going — Louisville is no easy out — the Wolverines won't go further than the Elite Eight. That's because Kansas, despite its loss in the Big 12 quarterfinals, is the clear favorite in this regional. The Jayhawks could get a tough game from rival Iowa State in the Sweet 16, which if they can survive, could lead to their 15th trip to the Final Four and first since 2012.
Kansas is my pick to advance.
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SOUTH REGIONAL
Each season there is at least one regional that is absolutely loaded. The South is that regional this year. No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Kentucky and No. 3 UCLA have won a combined 24 NCAA championships and are chock full of NBA-level talent on their rosters this season.
The bottom of the bracket also includes underseeded Wichita State as a No. 10 seed, which could lead to a matchup between the Shockers and Wildcats in the second round. In 2014, Wichita State went undefeated and got the unlucky draw of Kentucky in the second round leading to a classic game and the end of the Shockers' magical season. Could Wichita State turn the tables this season? That'd be something.
If Wichita State can't advance, , a fascinating game between UCLA and Kentucky in the Sweet 16 with the winner possibly getting a date with North Carolina could exist.
Armed with the best offense in the country, I think UCLA punches a ticket to the Final Four.
WEST REGIONAL
This regional seems like it was tailor-made for Gonzaga and Arizona to meet in the Elite Eight with either Bulldogs coach Mark Few or Wildcats coach Sean Miller earning his first trip to the Final Four.
Yes, Notre Dame is always tough in the tournament. Yes, Florida State is not to be trifled with. Yes, West Virginia's defense causes problems for virtually everyone. Yes, something else could happen.
But for my money, it'll be Gonzaga and Arizona duking it out in the Elite Eight. The Zags beat the Wildcats earlier this season, but the Pac-12 champion Wildcats didn't have their full team together at that point. Sorry, Gonzaga, but I think this is Arizona's year to break through.
BRACKETS: USA Today Bracket Challenge | Printable bracket (with times/TV)
MORE COVERAGE: NCAA Tournament section
CHAT: Jeff Potrykus Q&A at noon Thursday
CHAT: Matt Velazquez Q&A at 10 a.m. Friday
FINAL FOUR
Duke vs. Arizona: The Wildcats will be playing close to home in Glendale, Ariz., but I don't think that will be enough to overcome Duke's immense talent.
Kansas vs. UCLA: At some point, UCLA will either run into a poor shooting game or the Bruins' porous defense will come back to bite them. I think this is that game.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Duke vs. Kansas: The jerseys will be blue, the stands will be blue and the blood will be blue in this matchup of traditional powers. Kansas trips up Duke — or does Duke do the tripping? — and the Jayhawks take the title.
