NCAAB

Bubble Tracker: Which conference will fare best on Selection Sunday?

Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson
USA TODAY Sports

Conference supremacy can be measured in a variety of ways. When it comes to teams on the NCAA tournament bubble, some (ahem, SEC) feature more fringe teams than most. But which conference will fare best on Selection Sunday  — a mere three weeks from this Sunday?

Here's a look at the conferences that will get the best percentage of bubble teams into the field of 68.

The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats players look on as Wildcats guard Barry Brown (not pictured) shoots free throw at Fred Bramlage Coliseum. The Cyclones won 87-79.

► Atlantic 10: 2/2 bubble teams projected to make the field (100%).

  • 2/14 teams out of the conference on the bubble (14%)
  • 2 bubble teams projected in out of whole conference (14%)
  • 2 total conference teams considered for at-large bids (14%)
  • 2 projected bids

► ACC: 4/6 bubble teams projected to make the field (67%).

  • 6/15 teams out of the conference on the bubble (40%)
  • 4 bubble teams projected in out of whole conference (27%)
  • 12 total conference teams considered for at-large bids (80%)
  • 10 projected bids

► Pac-12: 2/3 bubble teams projected to make the field (67%).

  • 3/12 teams out of the conference on the bubble (25%)
  • 2 bubble teams projected in out of whole conference (17%)
  • 6 teams considered for at-large bids (50%)
  • 5 projected bids

► Big 12: 3/5 bubble teams projected to make the field (60%).

  • 5/10 teams out of the conference on the bubble (50%)
  • 3 bubble teams projected in out of whole conference (30%)
  • 8 total conference teams considered for at-large bids (80%)
  • 6 projected bids 

► Big East: 2/4 bubble teams projected to make the field (50%).

  • 4/10 teams out of the conference on the bubble (40%)
  • 2/10 bubble teams projected in out of whole conference (20%)
  • 8 total conference teams considered for at-large bids (80%)
  • 6 projected bids

► Big Ten: 2/5 bubble teams projected to make the field (40%).

  • 5/14 teams out of the conference on the bubble (36%)
  • 2/14 bubble teams projected in out of whole conference (14%)
  • 10/14 total conference teams considered for at-large bids (71%)
  • 7 projected bids

► SEC: 2/7 bubble teams projected to make the field (29%).

  • 7/14 teams out of the conference on the bubble (50%)
  • 2/14 bubble teams projected in out of whole conference (14%)
  • 10/14 total conference teams considered for at-large bids (71%)
  • 5 projected bids 

► AAC: 0/1 bubble teams projected to make the field (0%).

  • 1/11 teams out of the conference on the bubble (1%)
  • 0/11 teams projected in out of whole conference (0%)
  • 3 total conference teams considered for at-large bids
  • 2 projected bids

BRACKETOLOGY: Full field of 68

Results/records are shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data as of February 16. 

Removed from consideration in this week's tracker:  Rhode Island, Auburn

Houston (out for now)

► Profile:  18-7 (9-4) 56 RPI, 107 SoS, 119 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Rhode Island, Vermont
  • The Bad: Losses vs. UCF, LSU, Harvard

Virginia Tech (In for now) 

► Profile: 18-7 (7-6) 34 RPI, 66 SoS, 284 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Duke, Clemson, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Syracuse (In for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (8-6) 79 RPI, 51 SoS, 168 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Monmouth, Miami, Clemson, Pittsburgh,
  • The Bad: Losses vs. UConn, Saint Johns, Boston College

Georgia Tech (In for now)

► Profile: 14-11 (6-7) 78 RPI, 44 SoS, 244 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Florida State, VCU, Notre Dame, Clemson
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Ohio

Clemson (In for now)

► Profile: 14-11 (4-9) 51 RPI, 17 SoS, 95 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Wake Forest, UNC-Wilmington, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Alabama, Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oklahoma

Miami (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-8 (7-6) 50 RPI, 59 SoS, 262 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Wake Forest (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-11 (6-8) 38 RPI, 19 SoS, 16 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Miami, Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Dayton reached the Elite Eight after being a bubble team in 2014. Can it do the same in 2017?

Dayton (In for now)

► Profile: 18-5 (10-2) 28 RPI, 67 SoS, 55 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Rhode Island (twice), Vanderbilt, Alabama
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Massachusetts

VCU (In for now)

► Profile: 20-5 (10-2) 27 RPI, 66 SoS, 68 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Middle Tennessee State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Davidson, Fordham

Michigan State (In for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (8-5) 42 RPI, 18 SoS, 17 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Minnesota (twice), Northwestern, Wichita State, Michigan, Ohio State
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Northeastern

Michigan (In for now)

► Profile: 16-9 (6-6) 58 RPI, 52 SoS, 92 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, Michigan State, Illinois, Marquette, Indiana (twice)
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Indiana (Out for now) 

►  Profile: 15-12 (5-9) 91 RPI, 40 SoS, 158 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Illinois,
  • The Bad: Loss vs. IPFW

Illinois (Out for now)

► Profile: 13-12 (4-9) 72 RPI, 14 SoS, 42 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. VCU, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Penn State (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-13 (6-8) 77 RPI, 27 SoS, 47 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan State, Illinois (twice), Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: Losses vs. George Mason, Rutgers, Albany

Providence, still out of the projected field, notched a crucial win against Xavier this week.

Seton Hall (In for now)

► Profile: 16-9 (6-7) 40 RPI, 42 SoS, 121 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, California, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Creighton
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Georgetown (In for now)

► Profile: 14-12 (5-8) 61 RPI, 11 SoS, 20 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Butler, Oregon, Creighton, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses vs. No bad losses

Providence (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (6-8) 57 RPI, 34 SoS, 185 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Vermont, Georgetown (twice), Marquette, Memphis, Butler, Xavier
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Saint Johns, Boston College, DePaul

Marquette (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-10 (6-7) 81 RPI, 68 SoS, 257 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Georgetown
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Oklahoma State (In for now)

► Profile: 16-9 (6-7) 28 RPI, 12 SoS, 34 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. West Virginia, TCU (twice), Arkansas, Wichita State, Georgetown, Texas Tech
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Texas

Iowa State (In for now)

► Profile: 16-9 (8-5) 47 RPI, 43 SoS, 160 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State (twice), Miami, Texas Tech
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Texas

TCU (In for now)

► Profile: 16-9 (6-7) 49 RPI, 32 SoS, 110 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Kansas State (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (5-8) 55 RPI, 41 SoS, 240 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Texas Tech (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-9 (5-8) 85 RPI, 90 SoS, 337 non-conference SOS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State,
  • The Bad: Losses to Texas, Oklahoma

USC (In for now)

► Profile: 21-5 (8-5) 33 RPI, 82 SoS, 176 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, UCLA, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

California (In for now)

► Profile: 18-7 (9-4) 32 RPI, 39 SoS, 70 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. USC, Utah
  • The Bad: Loss vs. San Diego State

Utah (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-8 (8-5) 80 RPI, 91 SoS, 245 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. USC
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Arkansas (In for now)

► Profile: 19-7 (8-5) 36 RPI, 67 SoS, 54 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Houston, South Carolina
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Mississippi State, Missouri

Tennessee (In for now)

► Profile: 13-12 (6-7) 46 RPI, 3 SoS, 9 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech,
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Mississippi State

Alabama (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-10 (7-5) 74 RPI, 43 SoS, 84 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Texas

Auburn (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-10 (8-5) 69 RPI, 55 SoS, 81 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. TCU, Alabama (twice), Texas Tech
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Texas

Vanderbilt (Out for now)

► Profile: 12-13 (5-7) 62 RPI, 6 SoS, 1 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Iowa State, Arkansas, Belmont, Auburn
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Missouri

Georgia (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-11 (6-7) 52 RPI, 21 SoS, 30 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Tennessee
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oakland

Ole Miss (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (7-6) 66 RPI, 38 SoS, 40 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn (twice), Memphis
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Assume these teams do not win their conference tourney to secure the auto-bid.

Saint Mary’s (In for now)

► Profile: 22-3 (12-2) 20 RPI, 79 SoS, 82 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Nevada, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Middle Tennessee State (Out for now)

► Profile:  21-4 (12-1) 37 RPI, 141 SoS, 21 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Wilmington, Vanderbilt, Belmont, Ole Miss
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Georgia State, Tennessee State, UTEP

Illinois State (Out for now)

► Profile: 21-5 (14-1) 31 RPI, 133 SoS, 99 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Wichita State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Tulsa, Murray State

Wichita State (Out for now)

► Profile: 23-4 (14-1) 43 RPI, 154 SoS, 188 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Illinois State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

***

Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE TEAMS