Just how important are league titles? Playoff panel might have to decide
When the guys who run college football — and by this, we mean the commissioners of the Power Five conferences — sat down a few years back to hammer out how the College Football Playoff would work, there was a serious difference of opinion. Some wanted to populate the four-team bracket with conference champions. Others wanted the four best teams, period.
They got a compromise, of sorts. It would be the four best teams. But “conference championships won” is an official criteria the committee is supposed to use to distinguish “among otherwise comparable teams.”
We bring this up because it suddenly seems very relevant — and because Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, who back then wanted conference champs only in the Playoff, is set to benefit from the compromise.
You know by now that Ohio State will not win the Big Ten; the Buckeyes are 11-1, but lost a tiebreaker in the Big Ten East to Penn State, which will play Big Ten West winner Wisconsin on Saturday for the league title. But the Buckeyes were ranked No. 2 by the selection committee last week, and that evaluation doesn’t figure to change much considering their 30-27, double-overtime win over a Michigan team that was ranked No. 3.
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Without diving too deep, we’re now looking at the very real possibility that for the first time in its short tenure, the selection committee will decide a team that did not win its league is among the four best. And then the question becomes:
Is Ohio State in ahead of — meaning instead of — or along with the Big Ten champion?
“There are no automatic bids, I know that. I know that for a fact,” Delany told USA TODAY Sports — and to his credit, he did not quite chuckle. “I know this. The committee will look at all the information.”
He spoke like a guy occupying a very nice position (although if the committee chooses Ohio State instead of Penn State/Wisconsin, things could get dicey; the commissioner will face some anger from within his league). Big Ten teams occupied four of the top eight positions in last week’s College Football Playoff Top 25. That doesn’t figure to change much, if at all, this week — and maybe not after this weekend’s championship games, either.
Only conference champions? How about his conference’s champion and that other team that’s even better?
“The most important thing about that committee for all of us that were a part of creating it was that at a core level it’s got to be football people with credibility, and that’s what we have,” Delany said. “And so they’ll figure it out.”
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During the first two years, the committee has clearly been predisposed to favor conference champions. But this is the first time a team the committee is clearly enamored of has not won its conference.
Two years ago, TCU was ranked No. 3 the week before the final ranking and finished as a Big 12 co-champion with a 52-point win against Iowa State but fell to No. 6 (ironically, Ohio State jumped the Horned Frogs and Big 12 co-champion Baylor and into the Playoff). That doesn’t seem likely to happen to Ohio State, even if the comparison is to, say, Penn State as a Big Ten champion and owner of a win over Ohio State.
(Last week, selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt indicated the committee did not see “a small margin of separation” between Ohio State and Penn State, and if that evaluation does not change, the head-to-head and conference championships criteria wouldn’t come into play.)
Michigan could have made things a lot simpler for the selection committee if it could have held on to beat Ohio State. And while we’re on the subject, there’s a case to be made that Michigan remains one of the four best teams. The Wolverines won’t get into the Playoff, of course — so the debate shifts, either to Ohio State vs. the Big Ten champ or to the Big Ten vs. the rest of college football.
The good news for Delany: He doesn’t have to figure it out. He can sit back and wait, confident that his league is seen as very strong.
PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES
As we head into conference championship weekend, here’s a quick primer on what’s most likely to happen and its meaning to the Playoff:
SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida.
The Crimson Tide are favored by three touchdowns, and even a massive upset by the Gators wouldn’t be enough to knock Alabama out of the playoff (or to put three-loss Florida in).
Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. Penn State.
This is tricky. Either team at 11-2 would have a very nice résumé (though Wisconsin’s might be seen as stronger overall, Penn State has a win against Ohio State). But the selection committee has ranked Ohio State as the Big Ten’s best team, and there’s no reason to think that changes. Would the committee leave out the Big Ten champion for the Buckeyes? Or would it put two Big Ten teams into the field? It might depend on what happens elsewhere.
Played in/Played out: Ohio State, Penn State, Colorado make a case
ACC Championship: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech.
Simple: Win and Clemson is in. Lose, and the ACC gets left out of the Playoff.
Pac-12 Championship: Washington vs. Colorado.
The Huskies have been dinged by the selection committee for their strength of schedule, but it’s gotten stronger late in the season. A win against Colorado would probably be enough to put the one-loss champion into the Playoff — meaning the committee would still have the dilemma with the Big Ten champion vs. Ohio State. If Colorado wins? At 11-2, the Buffaloes would have a very nice résumé. But it’s hard to see them jumping the Big Ten champion at that point.
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Big 12: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma.
It’s a regular-season game, but for the second consecutive year, Bedlam serves as a de facto conference championship game. But because of their individual résumés and the overall perception that the Big 12 as a whole is down, the winner — either way — probably needs not one but two upsets (in the Pac-12 and the ACC championship games) to have a shot. If only one upset happened elsewhere, it’s likely the selection committee would simply put two Big Ten teams in.
WAIT A WEEK LONGER?
After Navy’s 75-31 victory at SMU — that’s not a typo, the Midshipmen scored 75 points — it’s time to consider what Navy’s success this season might mean for the postseason. Or specifically, whether the College Football Playoff’s selection committee might have to wait a week to fill its New Year’s Six bowl slots.
The highest-ranked conference champion from the Group of Five gets a berth in a New Year’s Six bowl (this year, it’ll be in the Cotton Bowl). Western Michigan, which was ranked No. 21 last week in the CFP Top 25, completed a 12-0 regular season and will face Ohio on Friday in the MAC championship game. Win, and the Broncos are probably the pick.
But what about Navy? The Midshipmen (9-2) were ranked No. 25 last week. They’ll play Temple on Saturday for the American Athletic Conference Championship. And then, they’ll finish the regular season Dec. 10 against Army.
Which means per its rules, the selection committee might have to wait a week to fill that Cotton Bowl berth.
“If on Sunday the committee believes the Army-Navy result would affect Navy’s selection, then we will wait,” said Bill Hancock, the Playoff’s executive director.
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If Western Michigan wins the MAC, it seems unlikely that Navy would leapfrog the Broncos. But if the Midshipmen closed the rankings gap significantly, the selection committee might be inclined to wait.
If that happened, all the other New Year’s Six pairings would be released on schedule on Sunday, and the other half of the Cotton Bowl, as well (it’s an at-large berth filled by the highest-ranking available Power Five team). And then the selection committee would reconvene in a conference call on Dec. 10 after the conclusion of Army-Navy to determine which Group of Five champion should be the higher-ranked.
TWISTING A LITTLE LONGER
Oregon coach Mark Helfrich said he called athletic director Rob Mullens on Sunday, about an hour before the coach was scheduled for a season-wrapping news conference, to ask for a meeting. He was hoping to determine his status.
But according to Helfrich, Mullens said his travel schedule would not permit; he had to fly to Texas for his duties as a member of the Playoff selection committee. He told Helfrich they would meet midweek. It wasn’t until hours later that Oregon released a statement from Mullens:
“Now that our season is complete, I will evaluate all aspects of our football program, as I do with all of our sports after their seasons have ended. That evaluation includes meeting with Coach Helfrich in the coming days to discuss the future of Oregon football.”
USA TODAY Sports reported late Saturday that Oregon was coming to terms with the necessity of making a change and had already begun preparing a search to replace Helfrich, who would be owed an $11.6 million buyout. It appears the official start to the search will have to wait a little longer.
Oregon, expecting to fire Mark Helfrich, begins search for next head coach
THREE TO WATCH
Pac-12 Championship: Washington vs. Colorado (9 p.m. Friday, Fox): The Huskies try to cement a Playoff bid; the Buffs hope to complete a stunning turnaround.
ACC Championship: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech (8 p.m. Saturday, ABC)
Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. Penn State (8 p.m. Saturday, Fox):
Bonus: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (12:30 p.m. Saturday, FOX): Bedlam for the Big 12 championship, with an outside shot at the Playoff? Could be fun.
Bonus II: SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida (4 p.m. Saturday, CBS): Watch to see how many defensive touchdowns the Crimson Tide score.
QUOTABLE
“Houston will always have a special place for me and my family. But now we are home.” — Tom Herman in his introductory news conference at Texas
“This is bigger than life.” — Ed Orgeron in his introductory news conference at LSU
QUICK KICKS
►Although Texas is 5-7, the Longhorns rank high enough in APR that they could be invited to a bowl game.
If it happens, Texas President Greg Fenves said Sunday evening he would let new coach Tom Herman determine whether to accept the bid or not. Herman deflected a question on the topic, saying he hadn’t thought much about it.
►The renaissance in Boulder continues. Colorado had lost 40 of its 45 Pac-12 games since joining the league. After a 27-22 win against Utah, the Buffs (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) are Pac-12 South champions and will play Washington for the Pac-12 title, with a long shot Playoff berth and a sure-thing Rose Bowl berth on the line.
“No one thought we’d be here, especially four years ago,” senior safety Tedric Thompson told the Denver Post. “We kept believing in Coach Mac. We kept believing in each other. It’s just a blessing.”
And it’s maybe the best story in college football this season. The mob scene afterward on Folsom Field, as captured in a photo tweeted by co-offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini, was crazy.
►In beating SMU 75-31, Navy scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 possessions — the 11th was the game’s final possession, when the Midshipmen ran out the clock. Navy also scored on an interception return.
►How dominant has Alabama’s defense been? Since falling behind Texas A&M 14-13 early in the second half Oct. 22, the Crimson Tide have not allowed a touchdown in 54 possessions. Opponents have managed six field goals.
►The SEC has had better seasons. If Alabama wins the SEC championship — it’s favored against Florida by about three touchdowns — every other SEC team will finish with at least four losses, and no team other than Bama will reach 10 wins.
HIGHLIGHTS FROM WEEK 13
