Questions raised by Playoff committee rankings: Can Michigan still get in?

One last time, we start with a public service announcement. This is the next-to-last set of College Football Playoff rankings. It’s meaningless, by the selection committee’s own acknowledgment. Come Sunday, the final Top 25? That’ll mean everything. But this set, like all the others before, serves only to heighten the anxiety surrounding the sport.

But again, we get a window into the collective thinking of the committee. Several teams in the rankings now have a complete body of work.

That includes several serious Playoff contenders. But others still have one more game, and the chance to win a conference championship, and in the first two seasons of the Playoff era, we’ve seen those prove to be very meaningful.

Each week’s ranking invariably raises questions. We’ll answer a few here.

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Is Ohio State safely into the Playoff?

Yes. Next question.

Oh, OK, here goes. Kirby Hocutt wouldn’t say the Buckeyes, at 11-1 without winning the Big Ten, are in. But if Ohio State ranked No. 2 last week after nipping Michigan State, the Buckeyes certainly weren’t dropping after edging Michigan (then No. 4, now No. 5) in double overtime in the game of the college football season so far. And now, sitting at No. 2, they’re finished. They’ll watch the conference titles get decided.

Someone asked Hocutt: Just how well should Ohio State and their fans sleep on Saturday night? … Is there a scenario in which they don’t make it from what you see right now?

Hocutt came back with the standard stuff about not looking ahead. But then he undercut his argument.

“We’ve seen a college football season where there has been some really unprecedented weekends,” Hocutt said. “We saw a weekend in which three of the top four teams lost. We just saw a weekend where nine teams ranked between 11 and 23 lost. We can’t look ahead, and so many things can happen on any given particular weekend in college football.”

That’s fine and good, but — Ohio State won’t lose this weekend, because the Buckeyes won’t play. And if chaos occurs, that only cements their chances, or at least doesn’t really affect them. Yeah, conference championships will be awarded. And especially if Penn State wins the Big Ten, there will be all sorts of valid talk about how the Nittany Lions own a head-to-head win against Ohio State and a conference championship, too — two criteria the selection committee is supposed to value very highly when considering otherwise similar teams. But that last part remains the problem.

“Only when the selection committee deems those teams to be comparable that the margins are razor thin, then do we go to those four measurements,” said Hocutt, referring to championships won, head-to-head results, strength of schedule and comparative outcomes of common opponents (and if relevant, other factors like key injuries that might have affected a team).

Former BCS computers put Washington at No. 3 entering Pac-12 final

In other words, the committee must decide Penn State and Ohio State are similar enough that those criteria should be applied to the evaluation — or they won’t be.

Back in 2014, TCU dropped from No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings to No. 6 in the final rankings. Could a team (again, say Penn State) boost its résumé with some super-impressive victory — like Ohio State did in 2014 — and find its way into the Playoff? Yes. Would Ohio State get bumped out like TCU did?

It’s hard to see that happening.

What are Michigan’s chances?

It’s obvious that the selection committee thinks a lot of Michigan. The Wolverines dropped only one spot to No. 5 after losing in double overtime at Ohio State, and Hocutt had plenty of nice things to say about the Wolverines — especially in comparison to No. 4 Washington.

But this comment cuts both ways: “I think the separation there for (Nos.) 4 to 7 is not a wide margin of separation, but specifically between Washington and Michigan, it’s razor-thin.”

On the one hand, that’s great news for the Wolverines, being compared so closely to Washington. On the other hand, there’s separation — and Michigan’s finished playing. If Washington wins the Pac-12 on Friday, that figures to put a little more distance between them.

And on the other end of the comparison, the Wolverines should be concerned that Hocutt included No. 6 Wisconsin and No. 7 Penn State in comparison, saying there’s “not a wide margin of separation” between Nos. 4-7. Either Wisconsin or Penn State will win the Big Ten championship. And even though Michigan owns wins vs. both, that might well be enough to leap over the Wolverines.

More practically, Michigan’s shot at the Playoff is difficult.

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It’s obvious Michigan is very, very good, and had a couple of things gone differently in Columbus last Saturday, would be 11-1, favored to win the Big Ten championship, probably headed from there to the No. 2 seed in the Playoff. But with the loss, 10-2 Michigan isn’t getting into the Playoff.

Again, that’s not a referendum on how good the Wolverines are, but they’re not getting in ahead of 11-1 Ohio State, which beat them. And if the Big Ten finds a way to get two teams in, it won’t be two teams that didn’t win the conference.

Got that?

What about Colorado?

In all this talk about Playoff résumés, it’s past time we consider Colorado. But let’s do it with this thought in mind: If Colorado beats Washington and wins the Pac-12, finishing the regular season 11-2, how would the selection committee factor in the ankle injury to quarterback Sefo Liufau that occurred during a loss at Michigan?

According to its official protocol, if comparing otherwise similar teams, the committee is to consider “key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.”

When he left early in the third quarter Sept. 17 in Ann Arbor, Colorado trailed 31-28. He had thrown for 246 yards and three touchdowns. The Buffaloes didn’t score again. Michigan pulled away.

Liufau played four plays at USC on Oct. 8, and it became apparent he could not go. Colorado lost by four points on the road. Might he have made a difference?

Played in/Played out: Ohio State, Penn State, Colorado make a case

Now, consider how the Buffaloes have played since his return, winning six in a row. And then consider the precedent. In 2014, Oregon lost to Arizona as Marcus Mariota ran for his life behind an injury-decimated offensive line. It seemed potentially devastating to the Ducks’ Playoff hopes. But a few weeks later, the selection committee cited the Ducks’ play since several of the linemen had returned to action, healthy again, in suggesting the true Oregon team had now emerged.

Could that happen with Colorado? Maybe.

It might not be enough, even then, if Alabama and Clemson were to win the SEC and ACC championships. The selection committee might see a Washington loss as the entrée to get both Ohio State — which appears to be a lock despite not winning the Big Ten — and the Big Ten champion (either Wisconsin or Penn State) into the four-team field.

But if the committee determined Colorado’s résumé stacked up with whichever team won the Big Ten? Or if Clemson was upset, and the comparison was between Colorado and the Big 12 champion (Oklahoma or Oklahoma State)? Then, the committee might spend significant energy considering what Colorado was with Liufau vs. without him.

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Could the Bedlam winner make the Playoff?

For the second consecutive season, the meeting between in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will decide the Big 12 championship. But unlike last season, the winner probably isn’t advancing to the Playoff.

It’s another bad sign for the Big 12 that Oklahoma dropped a spot, from No. 8 to No. 9, as Colorado moved up. Oklahoma State sits one spot back at No. 10.

Does the Big 12 champion have any shot at getting in? If there were upsets in both the ACC and Pac-12 championships, maybe. But Colorado (see above) already ranks ahead of both the Sooners and Cowboys. If the Buffaloes upset Washington, why would they suddenly drop below the Bedlam winner? And that’s before we consider whether the committee would place Michigan into the bracket (or the Big Ten champion Wisconsin or Penn State).

Maybe, just maybe, with a dominant victory and those two necessary upsets, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State could slip in. But it’s hard to see how.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL COACHING CAROUSEL