Next season's list of hot NFL head coaching candidates already taking shape
Hitting the midpoint of the NFL season also means we’re halfway to Black Monday and all the movement among coaching staffs that follows.
Dating to the hiring cycle after the 2012 season, 21 teams have combined for 29 head coaching changes. That’s almost an entire league’s worth of head coaches cycled out in a four-year span, not including interim coaches, suggesting the same mistakes are occurring league wide and the pool of candidates equipped for success may not have time to properly regenerate.
There’s a long conversation to be had (as I did with a number of NFL executives and industry insiders the past week) about how to break the pattern, if that’s even possible, considering some teams must lose every year and with that comes pressure to make changes.
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Widespread fear of backlash towards unconventional thinking is one issue, buoyed in the hiring process by recent bad endings with coaches from college (Chip Kelly with the Philadelphia Eagles), the CFL (Marc Trestman with the Chicago Bears) and lower-level NFL assistant positions (Jim Tomsula with the San Francisco 49ers).
Recency bias is always a factor, too.
But that doesn’t mean there’s a total void in the type of candidates many owners seem most comfortable hiring: “hot” offensive and defensive coordinators from NFL teams coming off good seasons.
Of those 29 new hires in the past four years, 19 were plucked from OC or DC jobs, including three internal promotions last year. Of the 16 external coordinator hires, 12 had just gone to the playoffs. (Head coaches fired that year or the previous year took five of the other 10 jobs. Three jobs went to college coaches — none since the Houston Texans hired Bill O’Brien, an ex-New England Patriots assistant, in 2013 — and one each to Trestman and Tomsula, the 49ers' former defensive line coach.)
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Barring a major shift in the way owners operate, you can pretty well project the makeup of the Class of 2017. So with an acknowledgment that each team has its own criteria, there’s a lot of football left and no jobs are even open yet, here’s a look at seven coordinators whose names figure to come up a lot for the seven or so jobs that’ll probably be open come January:
Josh McDaniels, OC, New England Patriots: McDaniels, 40, has learned a lot since his short-lived stint as head coach of the Denver Broncos (11-17 before he was fired late in the 2010 season). He’s as smart as they come, knows Xs and Os and is respected for his work with quarterbacks, notably helping Tom Brady to some of his best seasons. When calls come, McDaniels will listen.
Kyle Shanahan, OC, Atlanta Falcons: Shanahan, 36, has people in the league talking about the creativity he’s shown in the Falcons’ fast start. His Super Bowl-winning father, Mike, casts a big shadow. But the numbers speak for themselves going back to Shanahan’s days under Gary Kubiak in Houston. He’s very confident, which not everyone can handle, so fit will be important.
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Jim Schwartz, DC, Philadelphia Eagles: Schwartz, 50, took the Detroit Lions to the playoffs in 2011 but was fired two years later with a 29-52 record in five seasons. Lack of discipline seemed a constant issue there. But the Eagles’ strong start on defense makes Schwartz a logical target for another team that likes the idea of a head coach who has learned from past mistakes.
Anthony Lynn, OC, Buffalo Bills: Lynn, 47, has impressed in past interviews. (The Miami Dolphins and 49ers talked to him last year.) Players seem to respond to him. Now he has some coordinator experience, too, having injected life into the Bills offense after Greg Roman’s firing in September. He’s positioned as this cycle’s top minority candidate.
Matt Patricia, DC, Patriots: Patricia, 42, may be the best candidate people know the least about, which makes him intriguing. He worked in aeronautical engineering — yes, rocket science — before going into coaching. He’s been with the Patriots for 13 seasons, including the last five as defensive coordinator. The Cleveland Browns interviewed him last year.
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Sean McDermott, DC, Carolina Panthers: McDermott, 42, helped Carolina to a Super Bowl appearance last season, but only had one interview (with the Browns). The Panthers' struggles this year figure to work against him with some potential suitors. On the other hand, if they rally and just miss the playoffs, becoming available sooner might help.
Teryl Austin, DC, Detroit Lions: Austin, 51, has been part of three Super Bowl teams (Seattle, Arizona and Baltimore) as a defensive assistant. No one had more interviews (four) last year without getting a job. His people skills may translate better as a head coach than a coordinator. But he’s another candidate whose chances take a hit if his 23rd-ranked unit doesn’t improve.
Tom’s top 10
(Last week’s ranking in parentheses)
1. (1) New England Patriots: Everything’s going their way, including an ideal Week 9 bye.
2. (3) Dallas Cowboys: Dez Bryant’s (big) return makes offense that much more dangerous.
3. (4) Denver Broncos: Key stat for Trevor Siemian — just five turnovers in seven NFL starts.
4. (2) Seattle Seahawks: Look for rookie RB C.J. Prosise’s role to keep expanding.
5. (8) Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan’s 9.4 yards per pass higher than everyone but Tom Brady.
6. (7) Philadelphia Eagles: Matchup looks favorable vs. Giants offense that must throw to win.
7. (5) Minnesota Vikings: Ailing O-line is Pat Shurmur’s problem now. Look for quick passes.
8. (10) Pittsburgh Steelers: Who’s tougher than Big Ben? On track to start less than three weeks after knee surgery.
9. (NR) Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Foles posted a sub-70 passer rating in last four starts with Rams.
10. (9) Green Bay Packers: Still beat up entering big game vs. Colts before three straight on road.
Dropped out: Arizona Cardinals (6).
Note: Does not factor in the result of Thursday’s game.
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Follow Tom Pelissero on Twitter @TomPelissero
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