NHL point projections: Why I was so wrong about Blue Jackets, others

Last July I interviewed Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen and was fascinated by the overwhelming confidence he had that his team was much stronger than it showed in 2015-16.

Despite the team’s 27th-place finish, Kekalainen seemed sure the Blue Jackets would contend in 2016-17.

I should have listened to him.

Picking the Blue Jackets to finish last in the Metropolitan Division with 74 points was the worst of some embarrassingly poor decisions in my preseason projections.

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As Columbus sits today with 106 points, it is easy to wonder what delusional influence convinced me to pick the Blue Jackets to be one of the league’s worst teams.

I thought the Blue Jackets would be the team that took the most steps forward and be in the playoffs the season before. They didn't live up to expectations and betrayed my trust.

I thought the Metropolitan Division would be stronger — I was right about that — and the balance of power had shifted to the Eastern Conference. It was going to be more challenging to make the playoffs in the East.

I thought they didn’t have a true No. 1 center. It didn’t feel as if the Blue Jackets had done enough in the offseason. I could not have been more wrong. Even though I touted Zach Werenski as a rookie to watch, I didn’t foresee the game-changing impact he would have. Alexander Wennberg exceeded expectations. I never expected Sam Gagner to be a 49-point scorer. Sergei Bobrovsky’s return to Vezina Trophy-caliber form also helped considerably.

Coach John Tortorella pushed all of the right buttons this season to make this team purr like a Rolls-Royce engine.

Undervaluing coach Guy Boucher’s influence with the Ottawa Senators was another of my projection blunders. I expected a dip in performance level, and the Senators made me look ridiculous by posting 94 points with three games left this season. Boucher should be in contention for coach of the year.

I probably should have seen the Edmonton Oilers' rise coming because Connor McDavid has superhero-like qualities. Based on how impressive he has been lately, it is not unthinkable the Oilers could make noise in the playoffs. But I’m not going to apologize for being slow to have faith in a team that had missed the playoffs for 10 consecutive seasons.

What I don’t understand is why I was so wrong about the Tampa Bay Lightning this season.

I had them winning the Atlantic Division with 107 points, and they are out of the playoffs today with 88 points. Sure, they lost Steven Stamkos, but they've been down that road before. There Lightning unquestionably underperformed this season.

Oddly, the projections that received the most criticism turned out to be predictions that were at least in the neighborhood of being right.

Buffalo fans were quite upset that I said the Sabres would finish with 78 points and currently they have 76 points.

Likewise, Vancouver fans didn’t think much of my 65-point prediction for the Canucks. Currently, they sit at 69 points. Sure, I was wrong. But not by much. I expected the Canucks to be among the league's worst teams and they were.