Has Milwaukee area lost a stranglehold on Division 1 football?
A decades-long streak of area dominance in Division 1 football is in jeopardy this year. For the first time in a while, a glance at the state rankings will tell you the Milwaukee-area doesn’t have a stranglehold at the largest enrollment level.
Arrowhead, a visitor to each of the past four state-title games, is nursing a 3-3 record heading into the final third of the season. Returning state semifinalist Franklin sits out of the rankings, though the Sabers easily could be on them and surely will return with a victory over Indian Trail on Sept. 30. But it’s an unusual situation to see so many non-area teams in the top 10 of D1.
Since 2000, at least one team from the current construction of the Classic 8, Southeast and Greater Metro conferences has appeared in the D1 title game, and when you throw in North Shore powerhouse Homestead (which won in 1999 – and made three additional appearances against Arrowhead since), the streak dates all the way back to 1987. Even then, Oconomowoc (a member of the current Wisconsin Little Ten) made the trip, and Bradley Tech of the Milwaukee City Conference was a finalist in 1986, with Menomonee Falls appearing in 1985.
Thus, the last time a Milwaukee-area team wasn’t present in the D1 title game? That would be 1984, when Manitowoc Lincoln defeated Madison Memorial.
Last week, Oconomowoc and Marquette were the lone area schools ranked in D1, slotted fifth and sixth, respectively. Marquette lost and fell from the rankings, with Kenosha Indian Trail of the Southeast sneaking in at No. 10 and Oconomowoc elevating to No. 4.
The Raccoons could easily get to Madison, but they’re an enigmatic case, with a high-powered offense that has overcome deficits in each of its first six games this year – all wins – but a defense that hasn’t been able to slow teams down thus far. OHS has won two overtime games and has been embroiled in a thriller seemingly every week.
Indian Trail and Franklin are both strong teams from the Southeast, and Marquette’s loss to Brookfield Central was certainly not worthy of a precipitous drop from the rankings. So, there are still contestants to keep the streak alive, and it would be unwise to count out Arrowhead altogether. But if this is the front end of a sea change, here are the reasons why:
Kimberly. The powerhouse program from the Fox Valley came into the year with three consecutive state championships (one in D2, the last two in D1), and it was looking for a state-record 49th consecutive victory Friday against Appleton West. Its elevation firmly into Division 1 has made it the king of the mountain in the top enrollment class, and while these sorts of reigns don’t last forever, the Papermakers are the favorite to win every state title until proven otherwise, and anyone on their side of the bracket will need to pull an upset to get to Camp Randall.
Enrollment drops. Homestead, which went to the Division 1 state title game in 1999, 2006, 2007 and 2008, is no longer a D1 program, falling to Division 2 (where it has since won two more state titles). Waukesha West, the 2010 state champion, is also a Division 2 program. In fact, the concentration of power seems to be in that Division 2 range, with seven of the 10 ranked teams after Week 6 hailing from the Milwaukee area, including Brookfield Central, Brookfield East, Greendale, Whitefish Bay, Waukesha North and the aforementioned West and Homestead.
Though Waunakee and Menasha are still seen as the top two teams in the state at Division 2, a host of Milwaukee programs will be contending to get to Madison in that enrollment bracket.
Arrowhead’s surprise struggles. Arrowhead has been the flagship of Division 1 football, with the aforementioned four straight appearances in the state-title game and nine additional title-game appearances. It’s too early to call it a down cycle after two-thirds of a season, since the schedule has been difficult and the losses by thin margins, and it remains highly unlikely that the Warhawks will miss the playoffs. Heck, it would still be surprising if they fell short of Level 3 or beyond.
It can’t be discounted, however, that some in the Arrowhead community took the success for granted when they created an adversarial relationship with former coach Greg Malling, who left for a job in Minnesota. I’m speculating when I wonder if that contributed to his departure, but it’s a bit of a red flag when a successful football coach - and athletics director, with Kevin Flegner now at Oconomowoc - leave the best athletics program in the state in the same year. That's no commentary about this year’s team or the new coaching staff – which has an excellent reputation – but that relationship needs to be collaborative for the program to maintain the extremely high standard it set for itself. Down the line, even the perception of a toxic environment could make it difficult to keep any coach, and by extension, difficult to keep winning.
Dips in Kenosha and Racine. The opening of Kenosha Indian Trail has given the area a strong new athletics program, but it has also spread the talent pool in Kenosha, and we haven’t seen Tremper or Bradford compete at a level that can work deep into the recent playoffs. Bradford built a powerhouse that culminated with the 2011 state title - despite losing now-NFL players Melvin Gordon and Trae Waynes to graduation from the year before and top running back Vonte Jackson to injury. Tremper made seven state-title appearances in the late '80s and early '90s. We haven’t seen that in recent years, nor have we seen a Racine team at the level of Racine Park, which won the crown in 2005 behind running back John Clay. The Southeast has been reduced to a three-team race each year (Oak Creek, Franklin, Indian Trail), at least in the recent past.
There are plenty of reasons to think an area team will get to Madison this year. The layout of the brackets has a lot to do with it, though ranked Madison-area teams like Sun Prairie and Verona, as well as Badger of the Southern Lakes, would likely be positioned to face Milwaukee-area teams prior to state. Then again, Madison area teams have not traditionally been able to knock off their brethren from suburban Milwaukee in past playoffs.
This is probably all alarmist, as a three-decade run on Division 1 success doesn’t figure to become an opposite trend at the drop of a hat, especially when there aren’t many pockets around the state that compete in D1 (Madison, Green Bay and Milwaukee encompass the majority of the schools). But it will be an unusual feeling if we reach that last game of the season Nov. 18 and no buses are headed east afterward.