A voyage down the Packers playoff-scenario rabbit hole with three weeks to play

The Green Bay Packers have gone on a three-game winning streak to breathe life into their suddenly realistic playoff hopes, but there remain some obstacles in the way. It’s a delightful opportunity to jump down the tiebreaker rabbit hole and figure out just what has to happen to make yet another crazy playoff run come to fruition.

Winning the North

Detroit is currently two games ahead of the Packers for the NFC North division title with three to play, but that’s not as daunting as it sounds, thanks to a head-to-head meeting in the regular-season finale Jan. 1

Let’s assume the Packers win their final three games to finish 10-6. Most know this scenario: To win the division, the Detroit Lions must then lose one of their other two games (road contests against the New York Giants or Dallas), and the Packers would leapfrog the Lions in the final week of the season with a win in Detroit to secure the tiebreaker (having swept the season series).

There is no scenario where the Packers lose to the Lions in that final game and still win the North. No matter what happens, Detroit would be guaranteed to finish the year with a better record. But hey, we’re talking about what happens if the Packers win them all, so let's keep doing that.

Minnesota, currently tied with the Packers at 7-6, would also not be able to match the Packers, because the Vikings would lose next week at Lambeau Field and fall a game behind Green Bay in the final standings. The best the Vikes could finish would be 9-7.

If the Packers lose to the Vikings, then Minnesota must lose both its remaining two games (this weekend against the Colts and the finale against the Bears) for the Packers to stay ahead, as Minnesota will own the season series and the tiebreaker. Not to mention the fact that the Lions would also need to go 0-3 to close the year for the Packers to still have a shot at the division title. In other words, a loss in Week 17 is fatal, a loss in Week 16 is mostly fatal in the quest for a division title. A loss in Week 15 against the Bears is slightly less fatal.

If the Packers lose to the Bears this week, the Lions would have to go winless (not a longshot necessarily, as both Dallas and New York are likely playoff teams), and Minnesota would have to lose one of its other two games in addition to a loss against Green Bay in Week 16. The Vikings don’t exactly play world beaters in their other two games, but this is the NFL, after all. If Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota all finish 9-7 in this scenario (where the Packers lose to Chicago but win their final two, Detroit goes winless and Minnesota wins the bookends around the Green Bay loss), Green Bay gets the title based on a better record against the other two teams (3-1, whereas Detroit is 2-2 and Minnesota 1-3).

In other words, a loss this week is bad, but not as crippling as a loss in the final two weeks.

Wild Card options

In addition to the Lions, division leaders are: Dallas (11-2), Seattle (8-4-1) and either Atlanta (8-5) or Tampa (8-5). Seattle and Dallas are all but locks to win their division. The remaining playoff contenders to worry about are New York (9-4) and Washington (7-5-1), the team that doesn’t win the NFC South (Atlanta or Tampa, both at 8-5 currently) and the aforementioned Vikings.

Again, let’s assume the Packers win their final three games. That means they’ve already gotten the Vikings taken care of. If the Lions beat both New York and Dallas to win the division anyway, the Packers must look to these routes for a playoff spot. There are two Wild Card openings, so the Packers need to leapfrog two of these three teams: New York, Washington and the Atlanta/Tampa runnerup.

New York — The Giants would need to lose two of their final three games to finish 10-6, in a tie with Green Bay (who owns the tiebreaker since the Packers won the head-to-head). The Giants, as we mentioned, close the year with a game against the Lions on Sunday (and we’re conflicted there, since it’s preferable to see the Lions lose), at Philadelphia and at Washington. A very tough close to the year. If the Lions do win in New York, this is a consolation prize to consider.

Washington — The Redskins must lose once, and since they have a tie on their record, the head-to-head win over Green Bay likely won't apply. Either Green Bay finishes with a better record or not. Washington faces Carolina on Monday night, then visits the Bears and stays at home against the Giants. It’s best if the Redskins lose to either the Panthers or Bears so we can cheer wholeheartedly for them to beat the Giants in the finale. The Packers don’t want to face a situation where the Redskins are 9-5-1 and the Giants are 10-5, because Green Bay wants to finish ahead of both of these teams. Then again, if New York wins its final two games, it will have defeated Detroit (thus helping in the NFC North chase) and will be ahead of the Packers no matter what in record, so at that point, we’d all be Giants fans.

Atlanta — This is the least likely road to success since the Packers don’t have the tiebreaker by virtue of head-to-head and also trail by a game. Atlanta would need to lose twice, and it closes the year at home against San Francisco, at Carolina and at home against the Saints. Fat chance, but you never know. It behooves Green Bay to see Atlanta win the South and leave Tampa Bay as the team to chase.

Tampa Bay — The trickiest of the scenarios is this one, where Tampa is also a game ahead of Green Bay but has no head-to-head meeting. If the Bucs lose twice (at Dallas, at New Orleans, at home vs. Carolina), the Packers leapfrog regardless. If the Bucs lose once:

• The two Bays will have 10-6 records. The first tiebreaker is record in NFC games. Both would be 8-4.
• The next tiebreaker is common opponents (Atlanta, Chicago, Seattle and Dallas). The Packers would be 3-2 against those teams. Tampa might be 4-1 or 3-2, depending on whether that loss comes against Dallas.
• If the Bucs beat Dallas, then they would possess the tiebreaker over Green Bay and the Packers would need the Bucs to lose both their final games. The Packers need Dallas to beat Tampa Bay.
• If the Bucs lose to Dallas but win their final two games, then both TB and GB have 3-2 records against common opponents. Next tiebreaker!
• This is strength of beaten opponents. That’s not something that can be officially determined until the season is over, but counting the teams that both would be beating in the season's final weeks, current records of beaten opponents are 55-74-1 for the Bucs and 62-67-1 for the Packers. It’s going to be difficult for those numbers to adjust seven outcomes and for the Bucs to catch the Packers, so this is a good thing for Green Bay. But all the same, it wouldn’t hurt to see teams like the Jaguars, Eagles and Texans win (Packers wins that the Bucs don’t have) and teams like the 49ers, Chiefs and Chargers lose (Bucs wins that the Packers don’t have).

The tiebreaker with Tampa only matters if the Bucs don’t win the division. Right now, Atlanta has a tiebreaker edge over the Bucs (down to the common opponents tiebreaker and separated by one game), but it’s negligible, so I’d recommend just cheering for the Falcons to shore up the division, especially because the Packers lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Atlanta and won’t easily get in over the Falcons. The Bucs are easier pickings.

Who to cheer for

Let me tell you whom to cheer for this weekend, in order of importance:

Green Bay over Chicago — Or else, why were you reading this?

New York Giants over Detroit — As mentioned above, there is a consolation-prize value to having New York lose, but it’s a much easier path to see the Lions fall. In that case, Green Bay would just need wins in its final two games to reach the playoffs.

Carolina over Washington —The Redskins need to lose one more game for the Packers to have an edge. Packers fans should root for the Panthers the rest of the way, since they face three teams standing in Green Bay’s path to the playoffs.

Dallas over Tampa Bay — Tampa Bay will get a tiebreaking edge on the Packers with a win in this game (mentioned above). With this loss and the Packers winning out, it seems likely (for now) that Green Bay would have an advantage.

Indianapolis over Minnesota — In the unlikely scenario that the Packers lose to the Bears and still claw their way into the playoffs, the Vikings need another loss on the docket. This would apply.

Philadelphia over Baltimore — This gives value to Packers’ strength-of-opponents-beaten tiebreaker should it need to go that route, especially against Tampa.

Tennessee over Kansas City — The Chiefs are a team that Tampa has beaten, and we want to drive down their strength-of-opponents-beaten ledger.

Arizona over New Orleans — In our likely scenarios, Tampa will have beaten New Orleans twice, so this is doubly valuable to the strength-of-opponents-beaten ledger.

Oakland over San Diego — Tampa beat the Chargers, so their loss helps the strength-of-opponents-beaten situation.

Rest of the way, you are a fan of:

Dallas — Dallas is going to win its division and the Packers can’t catch the Cowboys, so there’s no reason to cheer against them, sadly. Dallas can help out the Packers big time over the next two weeks with wins against Tampa Bay and Detroit.

Carolina — The Panthers can benefit the Packers three times over with wins over Washington, Atlanta and Tampa (though one supposes Carolina can go ahead and lose to Atlanta to uncomplicate the NFC South and just leave the Bucs in the way).

Chicago — Obviously, the Packers need to beat the Bears on Sunday, but then Green Bay can cheer wholeheartedly for Chicago to beat the Redskins at Soldier Field and Minnesota on the road.