The Packers tiebreaker rabbit hole revisited

This was a great week for Packers fans, with Green Bay obviously winning in thrilling fashion and the Vikings, Lions, Buccaneers and Redskins all losing. It was delightful.

Everyone realizes by now that if Green Bay wins its final two games of the season, it’s going to win the NFC North. That’s still the best route to the playoffs. But let’s imagine the Packers lose one of their remaining games and figure out what it would take to still make the playoffs.

Spoiler alert: it's still a strong possibility.

If the Packers lose against Minnesota (but beat Detroit)

• Guess what? The Packers still have a very real chance of winning the division here. The Packers need Detroit to lose this weekend against Dallas. Plan and simple: if Detroit wins against Dallas and Green Bay loses to the Vikings, the division is Detroit’s even before the regular-season finale at Ford Field against the Pack.
• If Minnesota loses its finale against Chicago, then the Packers will have a better record than the Vikings and finish ahead of them. If Minnesota wins its finale in this scenario, the three teams would all be tied at 9-7. In that case, all three would be 2-2 against each other (first tiebreaker), so next tiebreaker is games played within the division.
• The Packers win the tiebreaker here. They’re 4-2 against divisional foes in the scenario (both losses to the Vikings), whereas both Minnesota and Detroit are 3-3 (both lost to the Bears once, Minnesota lost twice to Detroit and Detroit lost twice to Green Bay).
• Let's say Detroit wins in Dallas and eliminates the Packers from the NFC North. The Wild Card is harder to obtain, but it's obtainable. New York already has 10 wins, so the Packers can’t catch them here. There's one playoff spot left. Green Bay must finish ahead of Washington, Minnesota and Tampa Bay (or Atlanta, if Tampa bypasses the Bucs in the final two games of the season for control of the NFC South).
• The biggest problem is Minnesota. The Packers don’t hold a head-to-head advantage. So if Detroit beats Dallas and Green Bay loses to Minnesota, there is an imperative: the Vikings must lose their finale against Chicago, or they will have the same record as the Packers (9-7) and win the tiebreaker. I won’t try to figure out who exactly the playoff teams are likely to be, but it won’t be the Packers – the Giants and Vikings will have better resumes.
• What if Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Green Bay all have equal 9-7 records, you ask? Don't ask. The first application is to determine the highest ranked team in each division by tiebreaker, and as I just said, Minnesota trumps Green Bay. Sad face.
• We don’t want Tampa Bay to bypass Atlanta. The Packers lost the head-to-head to Atlanta so if it comes down to a tiebreaker between the Packers and Falcons, the Packers are simply out of the playoffs.
• Tampa, sadly, has a tiebreaking edge over Atlanta if they finished tied by having a better record against division foes. The Packers do not want that to happen. In this scenario where Green Bay finishes 9-7, the Packers need the Falcons to win the NFC South (two Falcons wins will do the trick, but since the Packers need Tampa Bay to lose once anyway in this scenario, it's preferred that the route be one Falcons win and one Bucs loss, or two Bucs losses).
• Tampa can finish 9-7 and win the division if Atlanta loses twice, and that puts Atlanta (also 9-7) in the Wild Card mix. There are now two Wild Card teams with better resumes -- New York and Atlanta. The Packers will enjoy January from the couch.
• To revisit this point: In this scenario where the Packers split their final games, Tampa must lose one of its final two games to finish 9-7 or worse, or the Packers will not have the better record regardless of who wins the South. 
• Also, Washington needs to lose again. After losing Monday, the Redskins are 7-6-1 and can still finish 9-6-1, which would be better than Green Bay’s 9-7. Washington finishes the year at Chicago and at home against the Giants.
• Sidebar: Packers fans are officially New York Giants fans. The Packers are no longer competing for footing with the Giants – the best Green Bay can do is match the Giants at 10-6, and if they do that, they win the division anyway and get to host a first-round playoff game (probably against the Giants), so the Wild Card tiebreaker is meaningless. It’s pointless to cheer for New York to lose, so forget about Thursday’s game against the Eagles. That doesn’t even have deep tiebreaker implications since the Packers beat both teams (they get a win and a loss either way).
• The only reason to cheer for the Atlanta Falcons to lose is if you feel strongly that the Packers are going to win the division, and if Atlanta loses twice, the Packers would get a better seed on opening weekend and, perceptively, a lesser opponent. I think we all know there are no lesser opponents in the playoffs, so save yourself some strain and cheer for the Falcons. Wins in their final two games would drop Tampa Bay’s strength-of-opponents-beaten, which definitely could still come into play. Buckle up for this part:
• Let’s say it comes down to a tie with Tampa at 9-7. Both are 3-2 against common opponents as a first tiebreaker (that mark is already set in stone). Next tiebreaker is division record, and both are 7-5 against the NFC in this scenario (since both split their final two NFC games to finish 9-7). The next tiebreaker is strength of victory -- add up the wins and losses of the team victories on your ledger (yes, teams you've beaten twice count twice).
• In the scenario presented, the Packers record of opponents beaten (as of today) is 58-67-1. The Bucs record is 55-70-1 either way (since both of TB's final opponents have the same record, and we'd be counting one of them as a win). At the moment, that favors the Packers, but it’s close. So, here are your list of Week 16 games to cheer for that impact this very situation:
• Cheer for the Jaguars over the Titans, the Browns over the Chargers, the Bears over the Redskins (we’re cheering for that to happen, anyway), the Rams over the 49ers, the Texans over the Bengals, the Falcons over the Panthers and the Broncos over the Chiefs. This is in addition to obviously cheering for the Cowboys over the Lions and the Saints over the Buccaneers.

If the Packers beat Minnesota (but lose to Detroit)

• The NFC North belongs to Detroit.
• Many of the Wild Card scenarios are the same, except the Vikings aren’t a factor because they can’t finish better than 8-8, so the Packers will have the edge. It will come down to the Redskins and the Buccaneers losing once more (and the Bucs not gaining in strength of opponents beaten).

TO SUMMARIZE: If Packers lose to the Vikings but beat Detroit, they might still be NFC North champs (if Detroit loses to Dallas next week). If the Packers lose to the Vikings, and Detroit wins that game at Jerryworld, then the Packers must pray that Minnesota loses its finale against the Bears, the Redskins lose once more and Tampa loses once more (and the Falcons win the AFC South with one more win). Even then, Green Bay must get that tiebreaker over Tampa, which is in the Packers’ favor right now but could shift. If the Packers beat Minnesota but lose to Detroit, they need the Redskins and Bucs to lose once more and they need that key tiebreaker with the Bucs to work out.

Yes, the Packers can clinch a playoff spot THIS week

• The Packers must win.
• The Buccaneers must lose.
• The Redskins must lose.
• The Falcons must win (so Tampa can no longer win the AFC South, which is a threat to the Packers, as mentioned above)
• In that case, the Redskins cannot catch the Packers, so they’re not a factor anymore. The Bucs could still finish tied with the Packers at 9-7 if Green Bay loses in Week 17 and Tampa wins its finale. In that instance, it comes back to the aforementioned tiebreaker – strength of victory. We’re assuming the Packers have beaten the Vikings and the Bucs have lost to the Saints, but that the Bucs will win their finale against the Panthers and the Packers won’t (a doomsday scenario we have to consider to figure out if the Packers do, in fact, have a spot locked up after Week 16).
• Let's look at the final week of the schedule and determine, in a worst-case scenario, how many outcomes would need to swing Tampa's way to bypass the Packers for that last tiebreaker. That way, we can envision how many the Packers need to be ahead going into the final week.
• We'd have to imagine the Bucs beat the Panthers in the final week (or else none of this matters), which ironically hurts TB in this tiebreaker because it gives the Panthers an additional loss. Since Tampa has beaten Carolina twice this season in that scenario, it's an 0-2 count to the Buccaneers strength-of-victory ledger.
• The Packers loss to the Lions, meanwhile, would be a plus-1 to the strength of victory since GB also has a win against the Lions this season. Already, ironically, Tampa Bay must overcome three additional outcomes in Green Bay's favor.
• Before you think that sounds amazing, you must know that in our scenario, Green Bay will lose two outcomes in Week 16 by virtue of its win over Minnesota (an automatic 0-1 to strength of opponents beaten) and Tampa’s loss to New Orleans (a 1-0 to the Bucs because the Bucs beat New Orleans earlier this year). In other words, the next two weeks would guarantee the Packers a net gain of +1 by virtue of the Tampa Bay and Green Bay games alone.
• Let's assume the rest of the games in Week 17 go exactly as Tampa wants. Remember: you want the teams you’ve beaten to succeed (and you want the teams the other guy has beaten to fail).
• Titans beat the Texans (0-1 to Packers ledger), Redskins beat the Giants (0-1 to Packers ledger -- and let's hope Washington lost to Chicago the week earlier, or this is a singularly fatal outcome and this tiebreaking business is moot), Colts beat the Jaguars (0-1 to Packers ledger), Bears beat the Vikings (the Packers have beaten both once in this scenario, so they get a 1-1 to the ledger, but the Bucs get a 1-0 since they've beaten the Bears), Cowboys beat the Eagles (0-1 to the Packers ledger), 49ers beat the Seahawks (1-1 to Bucs ledger and 0-1 to Packers). I haven't mentioned games that do not matter at all or would be a wash.
• The Week 17 Doomsday Scenario gives Tampa a plus-3 bump in strength of victory over the Packers. If the Packers have a strength of victory lead by four games or more heading into Week 17, they’d be guaranteed to win the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay.
• Bear in mind that one different outcome can change things pretty dramatically. For example, say the Giants beat the Redskins. That's 1-0 to the Packers instead of 0-1 -- a two-outcome swing. As mentioned above, if we look at opponents beaten and their records through week 15, the Packers already have a three-win lead in the strength of victory. Thus, if Week 16 is a wash for both Tampa Bay and Green Bay and Week 17 is the doomsday scenario I just projected, the teams would have an identical strength of victory ledger. Then, we have to go to strength of overall schedule.
• (I mean, really people, it almost certainly won't come to that, but JUST IN CASE YOU CARE -- the Packers and Bucs have both lost to six teams. Subtracting the two teams that they've both lost to (their records apply identically to both teams, so it’s a wash), the remaining four teams have a record of 29-26-1 for the Packers and 28-27-1 for the Bucs. ADVANTAGE GREEN BAY FOR NOW. Plus, the Packers play a tougher schedule the rest of the way, so that's good. Haha, I've gone too far).
• Let’s review who we’re cheering for this week:
• Jaguars over the Titans, Browns over the Chargers, Bears over the Redskins (that's a 2-0 for the Packers if it happens and 1-0 for the Bucs -- plus it HAS to happen for this Week 16 Clinch scenario to matter, or the Redskins can still catch the Packers in the final week on record alone), the Rams over the 49ers, the Texans over the Bengals, the Falcons over the Panthers and the Broncos over the Chiefs. Technically, in this case, we'd also want the Lions to beat the Cowboys. Those two play Monday night, and by then, we'd already know the Packers had won and the Bucs had lost, so the North would be won the following week regardless of the outcome. Legitimately in this surprising outcome, it would be better if Detroit won to give the Packers an additional 1-0. If the Packers lose, we’re cheering for Dallas so very much, however.
• I do not think the Packers will have clinched enough of a cushion to lock this up before Week 17. But it’s within the realm of possibility. I'd be surprised to see both Washington lose to Chicago and Tampa to lose to New Orleans alone, not even considering all the other machinations that have to fall into place.