Christmas tiebreakers! Packers have all but sewn up edge over Tampa Bay

More went right for the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Eve as it relates to qualifying for the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost, the Atlanta Falcons won, a handful of peripheral outcomes went the Packers' way (Houston over Cincy at the buzzer!) and, of course, Green Bay won.

Washington also won, which means the Redskins can still bypass the Packers for a playoff spot. Everyone realizes by now that if Green Bay wins in Detroit next weekend, the Packers will win the NFC North. But can Green Bay still get in with a loss? It's looking more and more likely, even though it would absolutely require that Washington loses to the New York Giants.

Atlanta has won the NFC South, so the only other obstacle is Tampa Bay. For all intents and purposes, the Packers have this one wrapped up should either Denver win Sunday night or Detroit win Monday night. Even if both lose, it's going to take a worst-case-scenario Week 17 for Tampa Bay to stay in command, but here's how close the Packers are to wrapping this one up officially:

In the scenario where the Packers and Bucs must use this tiebreaker, we must assume Tampa defeats Carolina next week and the Packers lose to both finish 9-7. Here is a rundown of current records for the teams that would be beaten on the strength-of-victory ledger:

Buccaneers

ATL - 10-5
CAR - 6-9
CAR - 6-9
CHI - 3-12
KC - 10-4
NO - 7-8
SD - 5-10
SEA - 9-5-1
SF - 2-13

Overall: 58-75-1

Packers

CHI - 3-12
CHI - 3-12
DET - 9-5
HOU - 9-6
JAX - 3-12
MIN - 7-8
NYG - 10-5
PHI - 6-9
SEA - 9-5-1

Overall: 59-74-1

That looks like a slim lead for Green Bay, but it's a little better than you'd think. In the scenario where this tiebreaker matters, the Packers will gain an advantage because a team they've defeated (Detroit) will get another win, while a team Tampa will have defeated twice (Carolina) will get a loss. Since the teams that have been beaten twice count twice in the strength of victory column, that's basically two losses against Tampa Bay's ledger. So assuming we're using this tiebreaker, the Packers will get a plus-3 bump, because Detroit's record will be 11-5, and Carolina's (twice) will be 6-10.

Given that Green Bay already has a plus-1 edge (from the numbers above) prior to the final games of Week 16, that means the Packers are basically sitting on a plus-4 advantage even before counting the other Week 17 games.

INTERJECTION: It should be noted that if Green Bay does lose and finish 9-7, then Washington must also lose for the Packers to make the playoffs. Thus, while the NYG-WAS game does have an impact on the TB tiebreaker, it's completely irrelevant if the game goes to Washington. Both Bays will be staying home for the playoffs, and nobody even needs to bother with all this math. So, for this tiebreaker to make a difference, we have to assume NYG has beaten WAS.

That means the edge for the Packers is now plus-5.

Who to watch

Revisiting this from last week, a look at what would happen if literally everything else in Week 17 went wrong in the other games for the strength-of-victory tiebreaker (if you're a Packers fan, you'd be cheering for the opposite of these outcomes).

• MIN over CHC (Packers would get one win and two losses, since it has two wins over the Bears, while Bucs would get just one loss, so it's a net of negative-1 for the Packers).
• DAL over PHI (would count against Packers, who have defeated Philly. Both TB and GB have fallen to Dallas, so the Cowboys don't matter for this tiebreaker )
• TEN over HOU (would count against Packers, who have defeated Houston)
• IND over JAX (would count against Packers, who have defeated Jags)
• SF over SEA (both TB and GB have beaten Seattle, so it's a wash whatever the Seahawks do, but TB has beaten SF so it would be a plus-1 for Tampa Bay).

NO vs. ATL doesn't have impact since Tampa Bay has defeated both once, so it's a wash. The Packers have played neither team.

KC vs. SD doesn't have impact since Tampa beat them both and will go 1-1 regardless.

That's an overall gain of 5 for Tampa Bay. When you figure that the Bucs are already down five before adding up these games, it's a wash. The only other outcomes left on the table are the KC-DEN game tonight (a Chiefs win would help TB) and the DET-DAL game (a Lions win helps Packers).

If both those outcomes go Green Bay's way, then there's no way Tampa Bay can catch the Packers -- at least, not in a way that it would make a difference for the playoffs. If even one goes Green Bay's way, then the best the Bucs can do is break even.

Strength of schedule

That moves us to our NEXT tiebreaker, strength of overall schedule.

If we account for the seven losses each team has, Green Bay has strength-of-loss record of 61-41-1, and Tampa Bay is at 59-43-1 (remember: all the wins come out to a tie, so that's why I'm not bothering to count them again).

But neither team is going to gain much ground here because many of these teams that Tampa Bay has faced play each other in Week 17. For our worst case scenario to play out in the strength-of-victory tiebreaker (thus creating a situation where any of this even matters), Tampa's SOS record would adjust by 7-9, and Green Bay's would adjust by 8-8 (let's assume Atlanta loses to New Orleans just to imagine worst case scenario for the Packers).

Since the remaining games in Week 16 are a wash for Bucs (they've played both teams in DEN-KC and DAL-DET matchup) and a wash for the Packers (they've both played Dallas and Detroit, so no change from that game), Tampa Bay actually can't catch the Packers on this tiebreaker. Meaning: a tie in strength-of-victory is a win for the Packers.

Conclusion

If EITHER Denver wins tonight or Detroit wins Monday, the Packers have the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.

Which would mean: the Packers will make the playoffs next week with a win (obviously) OR a Redskins loss.